In early European trade on May 9, 2025, Brent crude futures rose above $63 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed above $60, extending a weekly rally driven by optimism around critical U.S.-China trade negotiations in Geneva and a freshly sealed U.S.-UK tariff agreement. Coupled with robust Chinese export data, speculation around an imminent U.S.-Iranian nuclear accord and supply-side constraints from OPEC+ members, oil benchmarks posted their first weekly gains since mid-April. Meanwhile, sterling and gold reflected shifting safe-haven flows: the pound strengthened on the U.S.-UK deal, while gold edged up amid lingering trade war uncertainty. Looking ahead, market participants will keep a close eye on weekend talks in Switzerland, potential sanctions relief for Iran and forthcoming U.S. economic data, all of which will shape oil’s near-term trajectory.

Oil Price Movements and Weekly Performance
Brent crude futures rose 0.7% to trade at $63.28 a barrel in early European dealings on Friday, while WTI futures climbed 0.6% to $60.25 a barrel

. Over the week, both benchmarks notched gains of more than 4%, their first weekly advance since mid-April

. The uptick reflects a growing sense that progress in high-level trade talks could unlock fresh demand growth for oil, easing prior concerns that protectionist measures would choke global economic activity
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Overview of U.S.-China Trade Negotiations
Top U.S. negotiators—Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chief Trade Negotiator Jamieson Greer—met Vice Premier He Lifeng of China in Geneva on May 10–11 to address an escalating tariff standoff

. President Trump’s hint at reducing the 145% levy on Chinese imports to 80% if talks progress smoothly injected fresh optimism into markets, signaling a potential de-escalation of tit-for-tat duties

. Analysts view any meaningful easing of tariffs as a catalyst for revitalizing global manufacturing and transportation sectors, which account for a significant share of oil consumption
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Impact of Chinese Trade Data
Customs figures released on May 9 showed Chinese exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year in April—far above the 1.9% consensus—while shipments to the U.S. slumped 21% under the weight of reciprocal levies

. Conversely, China’s imports from America fell by 4.7% amid Beijing’s 125% surcharge on key U.S. products

. This divergence underscores two dynamics: resilience in non-U.S. markets bolstered by robust Asian and European demand, and a targeted drag on Sino-American trade flows as tariffs bite on both sides.

U.S.-UK Tariff Truce and FTSE Response
On May 8, the U.S. and U.K. unveiled a limited tariff deal—reducing U.S. duties on British cars to 10% for the first 100,000 units and scrapping steel levies, while the U.K. cut tariffs on U.S. beef and ethanol—which buoyed investor sentiment across equity and currency markets

. The FTSE 100 rose 0.5% following the announcement, with major components like Rolls-Royce and Aston Martin rallying on eased market access

. While the deal stops short of a full free-trade pact, it set a constructive tone ahead of Geneva negotiations and reinforced hopes for broader tariff relief.

Currency Markets: Sterling and Dollar Dynamics
Sterling climbed 0.24% against the dollar to $1.3269 on Friday morning, supported by the U.S.-U.K. tariff truce and renewed risk appetite

. The dollar index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.2% to 100.39 as traders weighed the potential easing of Trump-era duties

. Meanwhile, the pound eased slightly against the euro to €1.1781 amid mixed European inflation signals and ongoing Brexit-related trade negotiations
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Gold and Other Safe-Haven Assets
Gold futures rose by 0.6% to $3,327 per ounce, with spot gold up 0.5% at $3,321.15, as traders sought protection amid lingering U.S.-China tariff uncertainty


. Bullion’s appeal was underpinned by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, including a missile interception by Israel of a Yemen-launched projectile and ongoing Houthi ceasefire talks in Oman

The Times of India
. However, gold’s gains were capped by a firmer dollar and prospects of a U.S.-Iranian nuclear understanding that could lift oil sanctions and damp safe-haven demand
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Supply-Side Dynamics: OPEC+ and Sanctions
OPEC+ nations had planned incremental production increases for May, but a Reuters survey found that output actually edged lower in April due to disruptions in Libya, Venezuela and Iraq

. These declines offset anticipated supply boosts, lending additional support to prices in the short term

. Meanwhile, fresh U.S. sanctions targeted a third independent Chinese refinery for handling Iranian crude—a move timed ahead of nuclear talks in Oman—and underscored the complex interplay between energy security and geopolitics

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Geopolitical Influences and Future Catalysts
Beyond trade and OPEC+, markets are bracing for key developments:

U.S.-Iran Negotiations: A potential framework deal, convening in Oman, could ease sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, adding fresh barrels to global markets if ratified
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U.S. Economic Data: Next week’s CPI and PPI readings will inform Fed rate-cut expectations and thus influence demand projections for energy and metals
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European Central Bank: The ECB’s policy stance and growth outlook will shape euro-zone oil consumption, with Italian and German industrial data due in coming days
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Market Outlook and Risks
While the confluence of trade optimism, supply constraints and nuclear diplomacy has underpinned the recent rally, significant risks remain:

Stalled Negotiations: Protracted U.S.-China talks could prolong tariff uncertainty, pressuring demand forecasts and triggering volatility
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Policy Divergence: Central bank divergence—Fed easing versus ECB caution—could reshape currency crosses, impacting oil-priced currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone
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Middle East Tensions: Renewed hostilities, including potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, could quickly lift risk premia and propel oil higher

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Conclusion
Oil’s recent climb to above $63 for Brent and $60 for WTI reflects a delicate balancing act between hopeful trade-talk headlines and enduring supply-side pressures. With U.S.-China negotiations now underway in Geneva and U.S.-UK tariff relief in place, energy markets have found temporary footing—but the road ahead is paved with key data releases, diplomatic breakthroughs (or breakdowns) and policy decisions that will determine whether prices resume their climb or retrace recent gains.