By: Payel
Published on: May 29, 2025
Oil prices spiked sharply on Thursday morning after the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled against President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping, global reciprocal tariffs. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks both rallied as traders digested the news that a 10% levy on imports from major U.S. trading partners would be put on hold. The decision offered a reprieve for energy markets that had been under pressure amid fears of a full-blown trade war, and it triggered a broader reassessment of risk across commodities, currencies, and equities. In this in-depth commodity and currency check for 29 May, we examine how oil prices responded, what it means for gold and foreign exchange markets, and the paths investors might consider next.
On 28 May, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade concluded that Trump exceeded his statutory authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) when he ordered reciprocal tariffs on all imports from countries running trade surpluses with the U.S. The judges found that only Congress has broad power to regulate international commerce, making the executive-branch action unlawful. In a statement, White House spokesman Kush Desai criticized the ruling, claiming “unelected judges” should not overrule decisions taken in a declared national emergency. The administration filed notice of its intent to appeal late Wednesday, setting the stage for a potentially protracted legal battle that could escalate to the Supreme Court.
With the tariff threat removed—at least temporarily—Brent crude futures jumped roughly 1.5% to trade around $65.30 per barrel, while WTI futures climbed about 1.7% to $62.87 per barrel in early U.S. morning trade. The removal of the 10% import duty on diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel was widely viewed as bullish for demand growth, easing investor anxiety over slower consumption. Analysts noted that lifting tariff-related risk premiums reduced logistical overheads for fuel shipments, and they highlighted the importance of watching weekly U.S. inventory reports for confirmation of sustained demand.
Derren Nathan, Head of Equity Research at Hargreaves Lansdown, remarked, “The potential rollback of Trump’s emergency tariffs has provided clear support to Brent crude prices. While the administration’s appeal could reignite uncertainty, today’s decision underscores the resilience of global oil demand.” Many strategists at major brokerages have since revised their mid-year forecasts upward by 50 to 70 cents per barrel, whereas some money-managers are using the volatility to rebalance their exposure toward energy equities and high-yielding crude-linked instruments.
Gold prices retreated as the safe-haven bid faded following the court’s injunction. Spot gold dipped approximately 0.6% to near $3,303 per ounce, with U.S. futures down about 0.5% to $3,268.20. A stronger U.S. dollar—buoyed by the prospect of tariff rollbacks and improved sentiment—added downward pressure on bullion, which becomes more expensive for overseas buyers when the greenback rises. Still, some investors cautioned that this pullback might be temporary, given ongoing inflationary pressures and upcoming Federal Reserve deliberations, making gold a potential hedge against future policy surprises.
Currency markets saw a moderate uptick in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which climbed roughly 0.2% to 100.08 following the court’s decision. The pound sterling traded near $1.3460, little changed as investors balanced strong UK consumer data against ongoing Brexit uncertainties. EUR/USD hovered around 1.091, while USD/JPY extended gains to 155.20 yen. Traders highlighted that the appeal process and potential for renewed tariff threats could keep forex volatility elevated in the coming sessions.
Beyond oil and gold, industrial metals such as copper and aluminum rallied between 1% and 2%, reflecting eased concerns over supply disruptions in major importers. Agricultural commodities like soybeans and corn also ticked higher on improved sentiment. Equity futures rose across the globe: S&P 500 futures gained over 1.2%, FTSE 100 futures were up 0.8%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped nearly 1.9%, as markets welcomed the reduced likelihood of a trade-driven economic slowdown.
The White House swiftly filed an appeal, underscoring its intent to defend executive emergency powers. Legal experts suggest the case may ascend to the Supreme Court, given its constitutional stakes. Meanwhile, congressional leaders are exploring legislative updates to IEEPA that might explicitly grant tariff-setting authority to the president under defined circumstances. Investors will monitor filings, potential briefing schedules, and any bipartisan efforts in Congress that could shape long-term trade policy.
Looking past the headline volatility, traders are weighing how this temporary tariff reprieve will interact with OPEC+ production decisions and geopolitical risks—especially potential fresh sanctions on Russian crude. Market participants await the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting, where members may choose to increase output to stabilize prices or maintain cuts to support their fiscal needs. In the U.S., inventory data released later this week by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) will be key to gauging the strength of underlying demand.
Portfolio managers are reassessing risk positions: some are adding energy stocks and exchange-traded commodity funds to capitalize on a sustained demand recovery, while others diversify into industrial metals and agricultural futures as hedges against renewed policy volatility. Fixed-income investors face a delicate balance between Fed rate-hike expectations and potential fiscal stimulus tied to trade-legislation outcomes. Currency strategists, meanwhile, are employing options hedges to guard against sudden swings in USD crosses if the appeals process re-escalates trade tensions.
The U.S. Court of International Trade’s decision to block the Trump administration’s emergency tariffs has already produced a notable reprieve for oil, gold, and broader financial markets. While the ruling’s long-term impact hinges on the outcome of planned appeals and potential legislative reforms, today’s rally underscores how intertwined global commodity prices are with U.S. trade policy. For energy investors, the tariff halt offers a window to reassess risk and reposition portfolios ahead of OPEC+ meetings and pivotal economic data releases. As policymakers and judges continue to clash over authority and market participants navigate shifting fundamentals, staying informed and diversified will be paramount in managing the next wave of volatility.
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