Pound Rallies as 'Trumpcession' Fears Shake Global Markets: Forex, Gold, and Oil in Focus

By: Rimi

Published on: Mar 11, 2025

The British pound surged against the dollar this week, climbing 0.4% to breach the $1.29 threshold as investors grappled with mounting fears of a US recession under President Donald Trump’s controversial policies. Dubbed the "Trumpcession," concerns over aggressive import tariffs, inflationary risks, and geopolitical uncertainty are reshaping global markets. Here’s a breakdown of the latest movements across forex, commodities, and equities.

Forex Markets: GBP Gains, Dollar Weakens

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  GBP/USD (GBP=X): The pound rose to $1.2925, its highest level in three weeks, as traders priced in risks of prolonged US economic instability. The dollar index (DXY) fell 0.5%, extending its year-to-date decline to 4.6%.

  
  


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  GBP/EUR (GBPEUR=X): Sterling dipped 0.2% against the euro, trading below €1.19, as the euro gained strength on optimism around Germany’s defense spending plans and EU unity on Ukraine support.

  
  

Trump’s recent executive orders to hike tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico—and threats of reciprocal global levies—have rattled markets. Analysts warn these policies could exacerbate inflation and stall growth. “The ‘strength’ of the Biden economy was built on spend, spend, spend. Now, tariffs and spending cuts are exposing underlying weaknesses,” said Neil Wilson, chief analyst at TipRanks.

Gold Prices Surge on Safe-Haven Demand

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  Gold Futures (GC=F): Prices jumped 0.5% to 2,915/oz,whilespotgoldclimbed0.82,915/oz,whilespotgoldclimbed0.82,910/oz as investors flocked to safety.

  
  


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  Equities Sell-Off: The Nasdaq (^IXIC) plummeted 4% on Monday—its worst day since 2022—as tech stocks faced heavy selling pressure.

  
  

Gold’s rally highlights growing risk aversion. With Trump avoiding questions about recession mitigation and doubling down on protectionist policies, traders are bracing for volatility.

Oil Prices Rebound Despite Recession Jitters

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  Brent Crude (BZ=F): Up 1% to $70/barrel.

  
  


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  WTI Crude (CL=F): Rose 1.1% to $66.74/barrel.

  
  

Oil recouped early-week losses as OPEC+ signaled cautious production hikes. Russia’s Alexander Novak confirmed output increases would depend on market conditions, while US crude inventories rose slightly.

What’s Next for Markets?

1. 
   

   Trump’s Policy Rollout: Further tariff announcements or fiscal tightening could deepen recession fears.

   
   


2. 
   

   EU Defense Spending: Progress on Germany’s budget may bolster the euro.

   
   


3. 
   

   OPEC+ Moves: Oil volatility likely to persist amid supply-demand balancing.