By: Swarnalata
Published on: Mar 13, 2025
The UK housing market is facing a mixed outlook as buyer demand weakens ahead of upcoming stamp duty changes, while property prices and rents are forecast to rise over the next 12 months. According to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey, buyer demand in February hit its lowest level since late 2023, with a net balance of 14% of property professionals reporting a decline.
The slowdown in demand is largely attributed to the impending stamp duty increase, set to take effect on 1 April. This change will see the "nil rate" band for first-time buyers reduced from £425,000 to £300,000, while for other homebuyers, it will drop from £250,000 to £125,000. As a result, half of homeowners will face an additional £2,500 in stamp duty costs per purchase, with another third paying up to this amount.
Short-Term Slowdown, Long-Term Growth
RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinson noted that the UK housing market is losing momentum as the temporary stamp duty thresholds expire. He also highlighted concerns about inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties. However, Rubinson added that beyond the next few months, sales activity is expected to rebound, with house prices continuing to rise.
The survey revealed that while house prices increased in February, the pace of growth slowed compared to December and January. A net balance of 47% of property professionals predict house prices will rise over the next 12 months, indicating confidence in the market's long-term resilience.
Regional Variations and Rental Market Trends
The impact of the slowdown is not uniform across the UK. London-based professionals reported a significant dip in agreed sales during February, reflecting the capital's sensitivity to market fluctuations.
In the rental market, tenant demand has declined for the fourth consecutive month, marking the longest period without growth since RICS began its monthly lettings records in 2012. Despite this drop in demand, rental prices are expected to rise as the supply of available properties shrinks at an even faster rate.
What Does This Mean for Buyers and Renters?
For first-time buyers, the reduction in the nil rate band means higher upfront costs, potentially delaying homeownership plans. Existing homeowners looking to move may also face increased expenses, further dampening market activity in the short term.
In the rental market, tenants are likely to face continued upward pressure on rents as the supply-demand imbalance persists. Landlords, meanwhile, are reducing new instructions, exacerbating the shortage of available properties.
Conclusion
While the UK housing market is experiencing a temporary slowdown due to stamp duty changes and broader economic uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains positive. House prices are expected to rise over the next year, and rental prices are likely to continue their upward trend. For buyers and renters alike, staying informed and planning ahead will be key to navigating these changes.
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